Posted on 22 November 2008 by nosemonkey
A few bits and bobs that have caught my eye over the last week or so:
Robert Amsterdam on Donald Rumsfeld’s legacy to Europe:
he was the original master artist of disaggregation – a man who saw and skillfully exploited the very fissures of the contemporary European Union which today threaten its purpose and continued existence as an alliance of nations… And this week, the Rumsfeldian conception of “old and new Europe” is making a comeback in the debate over how to handle Moscow’s threat to put missiles in Kaliningrad”
It’s not just over Russian missiles – old vs. new Europe seems to be an emerging theme in the ongoing confusion over how to tackle the growing economic storm, according to Eurozine:
Even if a common set of regulations and measures were to be reached, differences would be manifest between member states, and above all between West and East: unemployment, inflation, budgetary deficits would affect each country differently. The problem is that a recession would have more severe consequences in the fragile and unpredictable eastern European countries, including at the political level.
Also on the economy, Obsolete is (as ever) really rather good on the bizarre collapse of the Tory poll lead during the current crisis:
The man who promised an end to Tory boom and bust has succeeded in abolishing boom, while the prospects for the bust look increasingly ominous. The economy which he boasted was among the best placed to deal with the global downturn is in actual fact one of the worst placed to deal with it, according to the IMF and the European Union. Unrelenting, the Labour party believes that the solution is to borrow more to fund the tax cuts to stimulate the economy. As Larry Elliot has pointed out, this is a direct contradiction of what Gordon Brown formerly believed. At the weekend the same man attended a conference which he claimed would back up his solution to the downturn; it did nothing of the sort, and predictably only agreed to more or less meet again. Gordon Brown, by rights, ought to be finished.
Elsewhere, Jon Worth asks do you think Barroso is rubbish? With more in a similar vein from Jean Quatremer:
Si, jusqu’à présent, les voix critiques étaient rares, elles commencent à se faire entendre, ce qui montre que la campagne pour le renouvellement de la Commission a bel et bien commencé.
Complementing Quatremer’s overview, the Financial Times’s (new look) Brussels Blog asks
why are political parties of the left in such poor shape across much of Europe? It’s the worst financial crisis since the early 1930s, the worst economic recession since the early 1990s, if not the 1970s – and where is the left?
And finally, a very promising signal from the European Parliament:
MEPs today overwhelmingly backed calls to strengthen the EU’s anti-fraud unit OLAF to enable it to tackle fraud more effectively…
[report author Ingeborg Grässle MEP] said that the Parliament’s zeal to strengthen OLAF and how it worked was not shared by the member states. “The Council [of Ministers] doesn’t want to strengthen OLAF,” she said… She said the Council did not want awkward discussions about the fight against fraud.
Once again, one of the EU’s biggest problems and PR disasters can be blamed nice and neatly on the reluctance of the Council of Ministers – on the governments of the member states – to press ahead with reforms to increase both efficiency and transparency.
Posted on 31 July 2008 by nosemonkey
Posted on 16 July 2008 by nosemonkey
Three things that have caught my eye this morning, in ascending order of importance:
1) Following a fun article on the impact a Tory victory in the next UK general election may have on the EU in this week’s Economist, there’s an interesting round-up of Conservative European election posters from the last couple of decades over at the Open Europe blog – a perfect illustration of the fundamental shift in Tory thinking on the EEC/EU that’s taken place over the last 30 years or so.
2) As EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson issues a stark warning about the need for unity over WTO talks, I stumble across EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads – a handy (mercifully short) briefing paper from Chatham House on the continued lack of a breakthrough in EU trade negotiations as we rumble towards the end of the Cotonou agreement and squabbles with the likes of Russia and China continue. Short version: it doesn’t look promising.
3) Medvedev Criticizes West in Tough Foreign Policy Speech – the usual Russian posturing, or the start of something new? Either way, “The EU and US have been warned”, apparently. Thanks for that, Dmitry! Meanwhile, the Financial Times urges standing up to Russia over Georgia – a much-ignored new Caucasian crisis that’s hardly getting any better, and Europe’s World has an article (promising-looking, but I haven’t had a chance to read in full just yet) on The EU, Russia and the crisis of the post-Cold War European order. From what I’ve seen so far, this looks like essential reading:
“The EU today cannot be described anymore as federalist state in the making – it is something much more complex and undefined. It resembles something closer to post-colonial India, with its mixture of languages, legal regimes, traditions and sensitivities, than it does post-War Germany or France. In the powerful metaphor of Jan Zielonka the post-enlargement EU is not a kind of Westphalia federation; it is more a kind of neo-medieval empire. There is no European demos and there probably never will be – but there is kind of European public. There are no final borders but moving borders and variable geometries. And it was Count Sergei Witte, Prime Minister under Nicholas II, who said there was no such thing as Russia, but only a Russian empire.”
Posted on 21 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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“My confusion exists on a whole bunch of levels. So bear with me as I try to disentangle them and lay them before you in a discrete manner, as opposed to the Escher-designed gordian knot made entirely of pan-dimensional moebius strips in which they curren
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Spun to make it sound nasty and capture attention from the Eurosceptics whose eyes are now all on Ireland (“Irish veto could be ignored!” etc.), but it’s more interesting for confirmation that the EU is heading towards a multi-speed system
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Yawn… Maybe I should hire a lawyer to take the government to court for not implementing any number of other manifesto pledges? A pointless waste of time with no chance of success. Why do rich people waste taxpayers money on such things?
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Well THERE’s a surprise.
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Ah! Petty personal rivalries between grown men! Don’t you just love ‘em?
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Nicely balanced, short and snappy overview of the single biggest challenge currently facing the European Union – Russia’s ever-growing dominance of European gas supplies. Read. Now.
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Why are people such idiots? A tiny region with no economic worth vs. access to one of the world’s most successful markets. Can someone please explain?
Posted on 17 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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Not least because one of the engineers has the gloriously Pynchonian name Wayco Scroggin… (Yes US army prototype-Gundam robosuits have nothing to do with the EU, but I want one.)
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“If the two largest political groups oppose enhanced transparency arrangements it must be because they have something to hide”. Nice one, MEPs. Way to inspire confidence.
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It’s up there with the CAP (largely because of the CAP) as one of the most difficult areas of the EU to reform, so what’s the current thinking on the way forward, and is there any chance of agreement?
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At least, so claims an anti-abortion Christian group. Doubtless not quite that simple – but would be an important and overdue step in the right direction, towards overturning the outmoded dominance of medievalist Catholic doctrine
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Ah.. The Kosovo precedent! Looks like politics is being played in the Caucasus with South Ossetia and Abkhazia gaining support from Moscow – but Russian eyes are firmly on the Balkans and the planned new gas pipeline through Serbia
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Is Silvio planning to cozy up to Russia? It rather looks like it, what with Putin being the first foreign leader Berlusconi’s meeting with (today) since regaining the office of Prime Minister. A potentially very interesting development…
Posted on 16 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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It seems tempers are starting to flare in Ireland ahead of their referendum on the treaty. It seems I should look westwards for a change – especially as I’ve got a book review to do on the thing for the TLS by the end of the month…
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“Let’s set up camps for jobless foreigners. You know, to concentrate them in one place so we can keep tabs on them. What would be a snappy name for such camps for concentration, I wonder?”
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Yep – Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini, former Italian Foreign Minister during Berlusconi’s last government, looks set to head home as the Commission enters its final 18 months and they all start giving up on the thing.
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I neither know nor care much about this, but it does strike me as silly to be burning food and encouraging deforestation in an effort to save the environment.
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You know why? Because it’s the single most God-awful, indefensible part of the European Union, with so few redeeming features as to make it worthy of little beyond wholesale abolition.
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“Unified Russia is more than just a ruling party. It is the single reservoir of the country’s political, business, and bureaucratic elite.”
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“Putin, 55, is set to become Russia’s most powerful prime minister ever, undercutting the presidency three weeks before he hands over”
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Ah – now this is a promising first step. Even if it does mean having to rely on Turkmenistan. And even if we don’t yet have the pipelines to get the gas to us…
Posted on 10 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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“the picture for the EU is quite terrible. Bulgaria ranks lowest of the EU 27 – 68th place, below… El Salvador, Uruguay, Barbados, Tunisia, Egypt and Costa Rica” – what IS Bulgaria doing in the EU?
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The vote’s already been delayed once… The Slovak government needs a 3/5ths majority (on a quorum, I believe) to pass the treaty – and the opposition are threatening to abstain en masse. Which would mean no ratification.
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Interview with EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner on what the EU’s plans are for the strategically vital – yet decidedly dodgy – Central Asian region. Read between the lines, there’s some interesting clues.
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Finally – the official consolidated treaty will be available from 15th April. This post from GrahLaw provides handy links to a bunch of other existing versions in various languages.
Posted on 08 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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Interesting shift in public opinion going on in Denmark, by the look of things. Are the Danes becoming less eurosceptic?
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“We’ll work together for our European future,” Vujanovic said, addressing a crowd of cheering supporters. “Montenegro belongs to the European Union, and we’ll join it.”
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“sinking under a bloated public sector, over-regulation and crumbling infrastructure… It needs determined structural reform of the economy and political renewal. It does not look like it will get them” – nice…
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And is that the reason it was suggested they try to join the Eurozone a few weeks back, despite not being member of the EU? Economics, eh? Confusing – but this seems to do a good job of explaining the situation
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Didn’t realise it was THIS bad: “The situation in Barcelona… could soon become critical. Water reserves there are at 19 per cent of capacity — they must be shut down when they reach 15 per cent because there is too much sediment”
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It’s all far more complex than this short report makes it sound and I don’t pretend to understand the details but, as a rule, I’m in agreement with most things that further global free(r) trade – so well done World Trade Organisation. (I think)
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About bloody time, you might think – it’s been going 22 years and the tunnel’s been open for 14. But it’s only a million euros (net). And is largely due to a bit of cunning restructuring. Will they manage to keep it up?
Posted on 07 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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“The campaign for a transparent and democratically elected President of the European Commission” – Hurrah! I’m sure that (for once) we can all agree this is a good idea. (via Our Kingdom)
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“appearances matter… Putin has acted and spoken publicly in ways that have reinforced the impression that he intends to remain the country’s ultimate decision maker” – good overview, and some things I’d missed
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Nice open letter on openDemocracy: “the credible prospect of EU membership was the best way to achieve a democratic and reformed Turkey which was in European interest”
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Yep – that’s the old Cold War superpowers still arguing over how Europe should be carved up. Hurrah for progress!
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“The initial post mortems on this week’s NATO’s summit in Bucharest are reminiscent of the old fable about a group of blindfolded men trying to identify the elephant in their midst” – sounds like a familiar argument (ahem), but worth making again
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“There are many paths that Serbia can take after May 11 elections. None of them is painless, none of them is easy”
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Good. Can we also get a deal on free movement of workers while we’re at it? (And not just because the missus is Japanese, honest…)
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Ireland’s had the same people at the top for so long, a handy intro to the new guy was just what I needed (even if I should already have known more about the guy).
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Another good, timely overview of what the hell’s going on, for those who like their politics complex and confusing
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Looks like something’s happening in the Dutch Right – something that’s not being noticed while all attention is focussed on the more obvious controversies over Muslim-baiting movies
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Hurrah! – “greater realism must be injected into the European approach to the relationship… This does not mean rupturing the relationship: realism, acknowledged and wisely applied, will strength
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Tip-top look at whether or not the Euro could be in the process of replacing the US dollar as the world’s top currency. Even I (mostly) understood it, and I’m an economic illiterate…
Posted on 04 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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Good stuff. But reunification will pose some difficulties without Turkish EU membership…
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Finally saw this the other day, and agree wholeheartedly with this line from this review: “There is no new footage”. It’s tedious and says nothing new. Polemicists used to be original and entertaining, surely?
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Hardly surprising, as he was also blamed for Litvinenko’s murder. It’s highly unlikely that there’s any basis to the claims, what with Berezovsky being the Kremlin’s biggest foe, but still. Interesting article.
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“The futile notion that Europe can be run by its top trio”
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“158 parties with 181 symbols have been admitted to the Italian electoral pageant” – yep, it’s time for yet another attempt to understand the hilariously complex Italian political scene. Great fun!
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On the decline of the current Commission as it enters its final 18 months
Posted on 03 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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The cynic in me wonders if there wasn’t a deal done. Ahern has, after all, been mentioned in connection with the EU presidency. It’s not like corruption would disqualify him… Santer Commission, anyone?
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Well done, Tony Blair – the UK’s opt out on human rights issues so we can lock up terrorists on a whim has set a glorious precedent.
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“Critics say the lobbyists have held far too much sway in the drafting of EU laws” – of course they have, because the Commission is massively understaffed, despite what anti-EU types claim, and they need all the help they can get
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Of course he should – and should eventually be accepted. Though he’ll have to do something to boost his country’s economic and human rights records first…
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“all this suggests that Europe has once again become a major dividing line between the parties, and crucially it is one that works to Labour’s advantage” – not so sure, after revolts over a referendum, but still…
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Yes, he’s in favour (as am I, eventually). But somehow he fails to make a single positive argument for Turkish membership. Lots of assertion, lots of whimsy, but no actual argument… Odd.
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Very handy quick overview of the major issues that may or may not soon affect both Europe and the world.
Posted on 02 April 2008 by nosemonkey
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Going to have a fair amount about the EU apparently. Doubt it’s anything major, but after Sarko’s visit, who knows?
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Well, they sort of had to really, didn’t they? How much restraint will Kosovo’s new government be able to show to this direct challenge to their sovereignty, though?
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“As the biggest contributor to the bloc’s coffers, Berlin argues that farm funds in particular should be strongly cut back in future” – oooh! Another potential British ally for CAP reform?
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Interesting – and potentially concerning – moves are under way to reform the rights and powers of MEPs, by the looks of things… Need more info.
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Nice overview of how Ireland could well scupper the Lisbon Treaty – not for its contents, but thanks to unrelated domestic concerns. Ah, referenda – aren’t they great?
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Interesting article (in French), largely arguing that the EU’s not going to succeed until France and Britain start to work together. Sounds fair to me.
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Well worth a read – nice overview of what may be going on this week. I’d say radical change is unlikely. It is, however, arguably long overdue.
Posted on 15 March 2008 by nosemonkey
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Oh joy – we could have another Balkan domino effect on our hands… Nice one, Kosovo! (Or is that altogether too simplistic? Methinks I need some expert opinion…)
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Nice overview of the shoddy compromise Merkel finally agreed to allow Sarkozy to get through. Definite shame, this – a missed opportunity. Boo to Merkel!
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Yet more Kosovo fallout. Impact? Unknown… Transdniester could be interesting, though, what with Moldova aiming for EU membership…
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“The government needs the votes of at least 14 PiS members of parliament to achieve the two-thirds majority necessary for parliamentary ratification of the document” – interesting…
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Nice overview – after all that you really have to wonder why the hell they still bother with the two seats charade. Just whack everything in Brussels – much easier, surely?
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Ah, more Turkish paradoxes! Secularism good – but nationalism bad and banning freedom of religion bad. But on the other hand, rise of Islamist tendencies also bad. Tricky…
Posted on 14 March 2008 by nosemonkey
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“The names being whispered in Brussels are those of politicians that even most Europeans have never heard of” – good stuff
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And they’re, well, a bit of a shoddy compromise, from what I can tell…
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A bit more analysis. Shame – they seem to have rushed this whole idea, when it could have been an ideal chance to do something really impressive.
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Hilarious! Yet more Kosovo fall-out, perhaps? The Aland Islands were on my handy list of wannabe European nations, after all… Heh!
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I would cheer, but that means Patricia Hewitt’s the frontrunner… Why can’t we send someone decent? Oh, yeah… They haven’t GOT anyone decent…
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Nice overview of how we’ve ended up with Russia as some kind of energy-based plutocracy – well worth a read
