It is, however, now back – so pop over and give us some encouragement / praise for finally getting our arses in gear and reviving the bloody thing. Expect more posts throughout the week of a rather better quality than that relaunch one by yours truly…
Update: In other long-overdue news, Berlusconi’s FINALLY resigned! Hurrah!
God damn, this has been tight. Looks like a margin of less than 0.1% of the popular vote on an 83% turnout (via the Italy Magazine blog). Which only prompts the question, “what Italian in their right mind would want to see Berlusconi back in power?” I mean yes, he’s great entertainment value (from a distance), but really…
In any case, it may still not be over, despite excitement in the early hours of this morning – even after Romano Prodi has claimed victory for the centre-left coalition, Tobias Schwarz at Fistful notes that with a margin of (apparently) just 25,000 votes, Berlusconi could demand a recount, which could well take the rest of the week…
Meanwhile, full-on lefty Lenin (the name’s a clue, you see?) analyses what a centre-left Prodi victory could mean for Italy (he’s not overly optimistic), while Italian in London Davide Simonetti looks at the wider implications.
More later, if I get a chance and things get finalised…
Update: Good stuff on the possible implications from Paul Davies at Make My Vote Count, and also over at Crooked Timber.
Wednesday update: Another good post-match analysis, plus a very handy statistical overview and explanation of the insanely complex Italian electoral system, complete with maps and diagrams (via).
Were I not so busy, I’d be biting my nails to ragged stumps:
“Mr Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition may narrowly retain control of both houses of parliament, according to projections from the Nexus pollsters.”Earlier, exit polls pointed to a narrow lead for his centre-left challenger, Romano Prodi…
“The Nexus projections, carried on the state broadcaster Rai, gave Mr Berlusconi’s forces 49.9% in the Chamber of Deputies (lower house), and Mr Prodi’s bloc 49.6%”
And that’s on a trunout of an estimate 85%. EIGHTY-FIVE… Of course, in this country, if Labour had a 0.3% lead they’d probably still end up with a majority of about 50 seats – based on those figures, Berlusconi would have a majority of about seven.
Still – he could still lose. Fingers crossed, eh?
Update: Damn. Forgot about Berlusconi’s recent reforms. See Phil in the comments for more likely possible majorities…
Just in time for tomorrow’s Italian elections (which will hopefully see Berlusconi booted out on his corrupt backside), Tobias Jones in the Guardian provides one of the best brief summaries of the complex madness that is the Italian political system I’ve seen in a fair while. Read the whole thing, but if you don’t have time, an expigated version (more traditionally known as wholesale plagiarism and copyright infringement, but at least I’m giving him credit…):
“There are 174 officially registered symbols in this election… That astonishing number of symbols is part of the reason why political debate is so rare. Much of the electoral discussion in the last few months has been about coalitions. The central element of debate is partitica, not politica: it’s about party politics… there are 33 parties represented in Romano Prodi’s coalition, 35 in that of Berlusconi…”Unlike Britain, the politicians are all older and more established than their parties. Of all the major parties, only the Partito Radicale was founded before the 1990s… In the previous parliament, a staggering 158 politicians changed party or coalition. Above all, it means politics appears characterised by old-fashioned patronage, in which reciprocal favours are more important than ideals and policies…
“The First Republic (1945 to 1993) was the archetypal PR system. It meant the Italian equivalent of the 1997 “Twigging” of Portillo was simply inconceivable. Proportional representation “lists” guaranteed that the mighty never need fall… At the birth of the Second Republic, 90% of Italians voted to adopt a first-past-the-post method. But what emerged was 75% first past the post and 25% still PR. It was a system so complicated that at every election, large newspaper graphics were dedicated to explaining something called the scorporo. The next time you’re idling in Italy, try asking someone to explain it. You’ll need a calculator, a lot of coffee and at least a couple of hours…
“To top it all, the process is hostage to outside influences. No one knows how influential they are, but various mafias certainly make their presence felt during elections. Read what you like into the fact that Berlusconi, in 2001, won 100% of the parliamentary seats in Sicily. Organised crime also means politics is affected by the bullet as well as the ballot box… More strangely, this election sees 12 seats in the Camera and six in the Senate decided by the worldwide diaspora of Italian descendants in four electoral colleges (North and Central America, South America, Europe and the Rest of the World)…
“Yet such are the contradictions of the country that its democracy is envied throughout the west. Voter turnout at the last general election, in 2001, was 82.7%. Compare that with 61.3% in Britain in 2005… everyone understands the responsibility of casting their vote. And that despite the fact that proxy and postal votes are unheard of. As you read this, Italian trains will be overloaded with electors returning to their home town to vote. Casting your vote is still seen as of such importance that, for instance, Parma town council offers to pay the train fare for foreign-based Parmigiani to return on election day…
“everyday life is extraordinarily politicised. You can tell someone’s politics by the strangest things: which football team they support; which coffee they drink (the Illy brand has leftwing connotations as its owner, the president of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia region, Riccardo Illy, is part of the centre-left alliance); which books they read (Tolkien was, during the 1970s, an unlikely icon of the fascist movement); even which shoes they wear (Tods shoes are made by Diego Della Valle, the owner of Fiorentina football team and vociferous critic of Berlusconi). In a country in which politics is so often conducted through symbolism and gesture, there’s a kind of livery that allows you to recognise, almost on first acquaintance, someone’s political sympathies.
“But the democratic engagement goes deeper than symbolism. There’s a quality of debate that is rarely seen in Britain. There are frequently referendums on topics that are politically soft but morally hard, like stem cell research; the debates regarding such subjects are impressively profound…
“In any democracy there’s a simple equation that suggests that voters get the politicians they deserve. For more than a century it’s been one of the greatest enigmas about Italy. How did a country with such intelligent, inventive and generous constituents end up with such uninspiring politicians? The generous reply is that the democratic equation is invalidated because Italian democracy is skew-wiff. The harsher reply is that the iconic politicians of postwar Italy – Giulio Andreotti, Bettino Craxi and Silvio Berlusconi – really are representative of the Italian majority. The greatest hope for tomorrow’s election is that, for once, the result may reflect the idealism, and not the cynicism, of the voting public.”
For more, check out a nice overview of the campaigns from di Gondi at European Tribune, and Beppe Grillo getting angry:
“The world press… continues to give the image of an Italy that is like a poverty-stricken ruffian… They are right. They say things that we would be aware of, if it weren�t for the media control here. When will we be free of it? I feel that I�m carrying a weight on my back. I feel a leaden atmosphere around, it�s sickly, it imprisons thoughts, it�s oppressive. Basta! Enough!”
Nutters of the world rejoice! Yep, all those raging loons who reckon the EU is a giant Catholic conspiracy to reverse the Reformation and subjugate us all to the laws of Rome (intriguingly often having a lot of crossover with the crowd who seem to think “dhimmi” Europe is heading towards the Caliphate) are likely to have a field day with Pope Benedict XVI’s latest little foray into EU affairs, arguing Christianity (aka Catholicism) to be central to the European ideal. The pro-lifers are also getting excited about Benny’s hopes for EU-wide bans on abortion and the like – well, they would, wouldn’t they?
This all comes on the back of Popey’s meeting with the centre-right European Parliament EPP group leader Hans-Gert Poettering, largely unreported in the English language press – though there is a bit more if you read Spanish or Italian… Poettering has, however, managed to spew a wonderful load of hyperbolic garbage should you be arsed to track his silly pronouncements down, with cack like “The EU constitution is a ‘holy text’” oozing from his lips along with blatant untruths about how the (largely anti-Turkish EU-entry) EPP “aims for new relationships, for which Christians and Muslims can be privileged partners as believers.”
From a British perspective, this Papal intrusion into EPP affairs could be interesting. After all, the Tories – currently a part of the EPP group, though David Cameron has hinted at a pull-out – were for many years associated with the Catholic Jacobite claim to the throne. Could this be a true back to basics for the Tories? Will they be promoting the Stuart claim? Or will this be just the excuse they need to withdraw from the EPP and go it alone in the right-wing hinterland of EU parliamentary politics with the likes of UKIP, Kilroy and the fascists? The EPP is currently the only viable centre-right group in the European Parliament, but if it starts allying itself with Catholic interests, can the Church Party afford to remain allied to what could end up pitched as a Catholic front organisation while continuing to laud the Church of England to keep its core voters onside?
Of course, I’m being facetious, and it’s all a lot more complex and (a little) less silly than all that. It’s also no coincidence that Benny’s spouting his latest God-approved guff shortly before the Italian elections. Is Rome trying to influence the people of Italy to vote in favour of Berlusconi? Most likely – the Church has always been keen to keep close to the wealthy (how else can they afford all those lovely marble buildings and golden chalices?), and as Italy’s richest man Berlusconi’s the obvious bloke to get on board. Shame there are no Michelangelos around to gain lucrative commissions from the Vatican these days, really… Maybe they could make do with Tracey Emin?
If you can be bothered, the Pope’s full address is typically bland nonsense, but easy to spin beyond all recognition, should you be that way inclined (which, following a nice liquid lunch and a heavy week in the office, I evidently am). I mean yes, as the Catholic Church’s main PR man he has to argue his case, but Christ,
“By valuing its Christian roots, Europe will be able to give a secure direction to the choices of its citizens and peoples, it will strengthen their awareness of belonging to a common civilization and it will nourish the commitment of all to address the challenges of the present for the sake of a better future.”
Bugger off, Benny – Christianity is obviously central to European culture, and only an idiot would deny it. But the Catholic Church has also – bar the 20th century’s flirtations with the new religions of fascism and communism – been the single biggest cause of chaos and rupture between nations in the continent’s history. The last fifty years have seen an increasing movement towards secularism continent-wide, and fifty years of peace. The only conflict on the continent in that time – the Yugoslav unpleasantness – being categorised by some particularly vicious massacres of people based on their religion.
Hardly something to aspire to, I’d say.
(This has been an alcohol-fuelled exercise in exasperated, under-researched exaggeration and misrepresentation. Normal service will resume at some point. Probably.)
That’s right, on being told he’s “not used to taking journalists’ questions”, the multi-billionaire Prime Minister and media magnate (who does his best to restrict the access of his opponents to his many TV stations and newspapers in the run-up to the general election by trying to alter the law that insists on equal media coverage) decided to prove the interviewer wrong by, erm… Storming out in a huff.
It’s three years to the day since I started this place going, but I have precisely nothing profound or interesting to add to this post from August, celebrating a solid year of blogging. So have a random collection of vaguely interesting things instead:
First up, have a gander at an interesting interview with Chris Patten on Europe, the EU and the world, and the Boston Globe on why Europe’s economy may be doing better than many have assumed (both via the always excellent Political Theory Daily Review). Atlantic Rift on the Tories and the EU is also worth look – especially taken along with Patten’s judgement that David Cameron “doesn’t know very much” about the EU…
Also well worth a shufty – as there’s only a month to go before the elections there – is Cafe Babel’s series of articles on Italy – in particular this one on Berlusconi’s enduring electoral appeal:
“It would be too simple to dismiss Berlusconi’s voters as pitiable immature citizens without a sense of political responsibility”
Much the same could be said for people who still vote for Blair… So If you haven’t already, read the angry Rachel on the many reasons she’s pissed off with Labour. (Our dear messrs McKeating and Hamster on the fact that we’re being led by a man who reckons only his invisible friend can tell him what to do should also be on your reading list for today.) If you haven’t yet, also check out Liberty Central – still finding its way, but showing promise.
In any case, if you look at Belarus, we should count ourselves lucky we’ve only got Blair to cope with. Our man Worstall, meanwhile, highlights a prime example of ill-informed bullshit from a journalist/blogger seemingly claiming that Belarus is actually all honey and roses. Amusingly, immediately after telling us not to believe anyone who says that a dictatorship which routinely uses political violence is, erm… a dictatorship that routinely uses political violence, the chap posts bemoaning “the appalling arrogance of journalists who tell the families of murder victims not to feel angry” – methinks the irony may be lost on the chap… (How DO these people get work?) Update: There’s more on Belarus dodginess at Publius Pundit, Radio Free Europe and plenty of info at br23 blog, which will shortly be joining the blogroll.
Oh, and I’ve been tagged with a meme – but as it’s all about music, which for no apparent reason I never really listen to, my answer to all the questions would be “no idea”, so doubt it would make particularly interesting reading. Much like this post, really…
In other news, is it just me, or is Blogger getting increasingly shit? Comment spam is escalating, crappy spam blogs are everywhere, and the server seems to be going offline every other day. Perhaps it’s time to start pondering a move – anyone able to fill me in on the cheapest options?
Update: This week’s Britblog Roundup is up for more linky goodness…
A day after the good mini-Mussolini bit the dust, Silvio Berlusconi is seemingly making his fascistic, dictatorial aspirations clear as he announces his hope to team up with Il Duce’s daughter Alessandra, leader of a group of batty far-right loons in the finest tradition of daddy’s days, should he win the upcoming Italian general election.
“I’m sure that Ms Mussolini, as she assured me, will list only candidates for whose democratic values she can personally guarantee,”
Said the major media owner who has tried to weaken laws guaranteeing equal media access during election campaigns, the political leader who has tried to reform the country’s constitution to focus more power on a single political leader, the man who has supported electoral reforms designed to give a winning coalition a bonus of 340 seats, even if they had but one vote more than their rivals, and designed to cut out independent candidates – like the nonpartisan leader of the main opposition coalition.
Potentially dangerous populist nonsense being approved shortly before a potentially dangerous populist Prime Minister gets embroiled in an election campaign he’s trying to delay while battling (electrical) power crises (prompting only semi-joking suggestions that Russia is trying to help influence the elections), threatening to use the military to break strikes and playing up to nationalist sympathies? Surely not…
An added bonus of delayed elections? A delay to the rules ordering equal media coverage for all candidates in a country where the Prime Minister owns the majority of the media. During a fifteen day period this month, Belusconi was “seen on most major television channels, on talk shows and even on the traffic news, for a total of three hours and six minutes… His opposition rival, Romano Prodi… managed to obtain just eight minutes of television coverage in the same period.”
Not content with reforming the voting system ahead of April’s elections, apparently to give himself a better chance of beating ex-EU Commission bod Romano Prodi (aka a potential Nosemonkey political hero for his consistant refusal to join any political party), dear old Silvio (aka “most corrupt man in western Europe”) has just passed yet more constitutional reforms. This time giving himself the right to dissolve parliament and dismiss ministers at will, bypassing the head of state. Effectively the equivalent of Tony Blair passing a law declaring himself King.
To which our man Prodi (pray he somehow wins…) responded with typical eloquence:
“A few months before the elections, a governing majority which knows it no longer enjoys the country’s confidence, which has lost all the electoral tests of recent years, which is divided and fragmented on the inside and incapable of leadership on the outside, is about to strike the definitive blow at our constitution.”
He doesn’t exaggerate. Also included in the bill are widespread reforms which could at first glance look as if they’re abolishing the Italian central government – transferring responsibility for education, health and policing to the regions. Much as if Blair suddenly announced that the failures in the NHS and state school system are no longer going to be dealt with by Whitehall, and washed his hands of the whole thing. Which many in Britain would welcome (perhaps rightly – let’s face it, it’d be difficult to cock things up any more…).
In Italy, however, you can’t trust Berlusconi as far as you could chuck his vast piles of cash. This is (and I will admit this is purely, like, my opinion, man) simply a way of shifting the blame away from central government – which retains the right to intervene and meddle at any point.
These are the most significant reforms since the post-Mussolini constitution came into force in 1948, and place more power in one man’s hands than has been seen in Italy since the time of the baldy blackshirt. Berlusconi’s response to Prodi’s criticisms, however?
“Prodi’s tones are not those of political debate but of civil war”
Yay! Great idea! Bring up the idea of civil war having just apparently devolved powers to the regions in a country which has only been unified for a bit over a century, has widespread regional economic disparities, a history of corruption and violence, and has famously had the least stable governments imaginable since the fall of the last strong leader… It’s shaping up to be quite an interesting time in Italy over the next six months.
Oh yes, lest I forget, yesterday Berlusconi also vowed to change the law which guarantees political parties equal access to the media during election campaigns. The fact that he just happens to own the majority of the Italian media is just, like, a happy coincidence and stuff, obviously… So fingers crossed for a boom in the world of Italian blogs – a few English language ones of which I was previously unaware I’ve discovered today: Italy Magazine’s news blog, A Welshman in Milano and Beppe Grillo. The always good North Sea Diaries also has a bit of a Berlusconi fixation. If you know of any more, let me know.
(I hate migranes by the way – I’ve been out of action for eight hours today…)
Tax-dodging media mogul Rupert “I really shouldn’t say this, but” Murdoch has announced that he won’t be taking sides in the Italian elections expected in May next year, at which anyone with any brain desperately wants Silvio “rabid, corrupt maniac” Berlusconi, whom Murdoch met for lunch today, to be booted out on his unpleasant arse.
Murdoch says of his Sky Italia channel that “I believe that in TV one is using a public licence to disseminate the news and it is important that you should remain absolutely fair,” while admitting that “If I were publishing a newspaper or magazine [in Italy] I would consider that quite differently”.
Murdoch and Berlusconi used to be good mates – but that was before Sky started branching out into the Italian market. As Silvio owns 45% of Italy’s free-to-air TV channels and a good chunk of the country’s printed media, he was always going to be a rival – but since he became PM he’s been pissing about with government subsidies for digital services, undermining Murdoch’s satellite base.
Is this enough to make Murdoch swing behind Belusconi’s rival for power, former European Commission head Romano Prodi? God knows – he did meet him for a chat yesterday though. But even if Prodi did get Murdoch’s backing, Berlusconi’s half-Nelson on the country’s media ensures that his propaganda machine will still easily dominate.
And then, of course, there’s Berlusconi’s attempt today to reform Italy’s voting system ahead of the elections:
“‘This law would reduce the margin of the opposition’s likely victory,’ said Maurizio Pessato, a political analyst and chief executive officer of Trieste-Italy based SWG Srl polling company. ‘It’s a return to the past where each party defends its own interests rather than the general interests of the country.’”
Sounds great, eh? The basic plan seems to be to return to a version of the voting system Italy had before 1994 – the one that produced such unstable governments that Italy has had over 50 of the buggers since the war. The benefit to Berlusconi? Well, under that system you voted for a party alone. Romano Prodi – and here’s a reason to love the guy – has not only never joined a political party, making it rather hard for him to get elected if the system changes again, but is also leading a coalition made up of lots of little parties which may get wiped out under the proposed changes. Coincidence, eh?
Paul at Make My Vote Count is my bitch, so has more on the dodgy vote changes. Worth keeping an eye on, this – Silvio got so excited about it in the debates today that he twisted his ankle. He knows that without some kind of dodgy dealing even his propaganda advantage won’t be able to help him cling on to power – this is not something he’s going to be prepared to let slide.
So Howard steps aside gracefully, leaving chaos in his wake; Blair clings to power even after saying he’s going to go, breeding resentment and fear respectively among his heir’s and his own supporters; Kennedy faces down his internal opponents and defiantly states he’ll carry on ad infinitum even though nobody can ever imagine him in Number 10.
We Brits really aren’t much good at this whole getting rid of political leaders lark, are we?
It’s time to take some pointers from our continental cousins – and where better to look than Italy, home of the original Et tu, Brute? moment, and home to a positively ridiculous number of governments since they got rid of their last genuinely strong leader by executing him and his cabinet, before hanging his body upside down in the middle of Milan to be pelted with fruit and rocks by a braying and jubilant crowd.
Just picture that happening to Blair and co… Wonderful, isn’t it? And we’d get a genuinely fluid, responsive democracy in the process. (And probably all kinds of chaos and confusion as a side-effect, but you can’t have everything, eh?)
Anyway, I digress… Italy’s longest-serving post-war Prime Minister (at an impressive four consecutive years) looks – finally – to be in a spot of bother. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
So, Tories, non-Blairite Labourites, anti-Kennedy Lib Dems – keep an eye on how Berlusconi’s enemies get rid of the guy, as could and should be happening soon. He’s got a far stronger hold on both his party and his country than anyone in Britain’s managed since the days of Charles I – if the Italians can boot him out, it’s final proof that Blair and co really shouldn’t be that much of a challenge.
And hell – worst comes to the worst we can always follow the example of our forebears and do to Tony what they did to Charlie, or what those happy crowds did to Il Duce. We can test the axe out on Clarke, Blunkett and co first – it’ll be great! Fun for all the family! Although knowing the way things work Sky will probably buy up the rights to the execution and whack it on pay per view… The bastards.
(Or does advocating the killing of the Prime Minister count as incitement to terrorism? Can’t work it out these days… Anyway, if we’d overthrown the government in a popular revolt and instituted our own laws making our actions legal, we’d be acting with the authority of the state, so it couldn’t be terrorism, right? I dunno – maybe I ought to just shut up now. Probably taking things too far. Brevity is better and all that – and makes you less likely to get locked up in a windowless cell for three months on the Safety Elephant’s whim…)