In the unusual Buckingham constituency*, UKIP’s Nigel Farage – advocating withdrawal from the EU – ended up in third place, despite a high-profile (non-fatal) election-day plane crash**.

The amusing news for pro-EU types? Farage was beaten into second place by an independent former Conservative MEP, John Stevens.

Why is this so funny? Stevens was the co-founder of the Pro-Euro Conservative Party.

Ha ha ha! Yes, an arch-eurosceptic beaten in a direct popularity contest by an arch europhile. In Britain.

So much for us all being anti-EU, eh?

My fuller post-election analysis can be found here.

* UK convention states that the major parties don’t run against a sitting Speaker of the House of Commons, leaving the way clear for various fringe parties to get high up the results list. Buckingham is the current Speaker’s constituency, hence the high placements for the likes of UKIP and independents.

** Get well soon, Nigel – but what were you doing going up in a plane with a UKIP banner anyway? Campaigning is expressly forbidden on election day…

Just back from Japan, from where I was closely following the UK election on Twitter (your best place for my day-to-day political commentary these days, though be warned they’re usually more jokey – and sweary – than here…)

After 30 hours offline, and 44 hours after the polling booths closed, the UK still doesn’t have a new government. As such, witness the wonders of my jetlag-inspired political guesswork!

I’d be surprised if this lack of a government lasted beyond Monday morning, largely because the next government will want to look responsible – and we had some serious global financial trouble on Friday for a variety of reasons (NY stock exchange hiccough, Greek crisis, UK election uncertainty, etc.). They’ll want to have a government before the markets open, if they can…)

Here’s what I currently reckon will happen, rejigged from a few comments on Twitter:

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s playing this absolutely perfectly so far – he has solid offers to join coalitions from both Labour and the Conservatives, and significant policy differences with both, and has explicitly stated that the Tories – with more seats and more of the vote – should have the right to “seek to form” a government first.

But the Tories can’t get a parliamentary majority without Lib Dem support. At least, not a stable one. Not the sort of majority that they’d need to do, well, just about anything.

But Labour and the Lib Dems combined can’t get a parliamentary majority without other parties’ support either.

Clegg has also repeatedly mentioned “the national interest” and equated this with electoral reform (unsurprising, considering Labour got only 5% more of the vote than the Lib Dems, but 5 times the parliamentary seats).

The Tories are fundamentally opposed to the sort of Proportional Representation-style electoral reform that the Lib Dems want (usually single transferable vote) – which is hardly surprising, as it would almost certainly lead to a permanent Labour/Lib Dem coalition (there being very few other parties on the centre right that are likely to end up big enough to give the Tories the backing they’d need under such a system).

So, Clegg is giving the impression that he’s willing to work with the Tories – and probably is – but his one major condition is a deal-breaker for Cameron and co.

So I’m now fairly convinced that Prime Minister Cameron’s not going to happen. If Cameron rejects PR, as he must to keep his party behind him (there have already been dire warnings from the right wing of the Conservative Party about such a move, in the shape of Thatcher-era relic Lord Tebbit), then a Lib Dem/Labour/Scottish National Party / Plaid Cymru coalition has first dibs (SNP leader Alex Salmond has already openly proposed this).

Constituionally-speaking, Gordon Brown retains first right to try to form a government, as the sitting Prime Minister in a hung parliament. With Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid Cymru support, the coalition would have an outright majority – able to outvote the Tories and their allies on anything. As such, despite his unpopularity (and calls from within his own party to step down), Brown could yet remain as caretaker PM of a coalition expressly set up to bring in electoral reform.

This would actually be a very sensible option, for several reasons:

1) It would be constitutionally unprecedented for Cameron to form a minority government in the current circumstances – he is impotent until he has enough supporters to claim an outright majority. This looks to be impossible.

2) The constitution explicitly states that Gordon Brown remains Prime Minister, so using him as a figurehead for any new coalition is – constitutionally – the least harmful in the short term.

3) Anyone unhappy with Brown remaining as PM simply adds to the case for major constitutional reform with their objections.

4) This would also give both Labour *and* the Conservatives time to sort themselves out, as they are blatantly in a shambles at the moment.

So, what I’d suggest is a short-term multi-party national coalition *explicitly* for electoral *and* parliamentary/constitutional reform, as well as to maintain some form of stability in the midst of an ongoing financial crisis, keeping Gordon Brown as a figurehead Prime Minister for constitutional reasons alone, with an explicit promise that he will step down once the basic reforms are in place to have a fresh election under a new electoral system.

One final note: There’s nothing to say – constitutionally – that the Prime Minister has to be a party leader. Nor even that he has to be an MP… The question is, is there *anyone* who could be seen as a sufficiently impartial lynchpin to take on the task of leading a coalition of (at least) four parties?

If you want to understand Britain’s rather odd relationship with the EU, you could do far worse than read this really rather good overview in this week’s Economist, especially considering its focus on the Conservative party – likely to form the next British government in a little over six weeks’ time.

There are only a couple of flaws (e.g. mentioning a figure of 50% for the number of European laws stemming from the EU, when readers of this blog will be aware that it’s more in the region of 10-30%, depending), and much insightful analysis that tallies 99% with my own views. It also provides one of the best short summaries of the last 40+ years of UK-EU relations I’ve seen.

Below the fold, a few highlights.

Update: It should also be read in conjunction with Charlemagne on eurosceptic think tank Open Europe and the nature of the British press to give the full picture on why the UK is so insistent on remaining utterly ignorant on all matters EU-related.

On Tory (and British) euroscepticism:

“all the signs are that the new intake of backbench Tories will be bursting for a row over Europe. Back in the years of Margaret Thatcher and John Major, the Conservative Party was divided on the subject, but now it is largely united—in Euroscepticism. Almost the only divide is between those who dislike the EU but think it would be better to stay in, and those who would prefer to leave. According to a survey last July by ConservativeHome, a website, over 40% of prospective Tory candidates favour either a “fundamental” renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership or outright withdrawal. The strength of backbench opinion makes a Tory bust-up with the EU a lot more likely…

“The explanation for such views is to be found partly in the country’s geography and history, partly in its experience as a member and partly in ignorance and prejudice.”

On the reasons for British euroscepticism:

“The average Eurosceptic in Britain has acquired an impression of constant rule changes that always increase the power of EU institutions. This reinforces their existing prejudices, such as the belief that what Britain joined in 1973, and what Britons voted yes to in 1975, was in essence a free-trade area that only later transmogrified into a putative political union. True, the British government did not exactly spell things out (its white paper in 1971 said there was no question of losing essential sovereignty), but the European project, with its promise of ever-closer union, always had an overtly political dimension.

“Making things worse is a profound ignorance of what the EU does and how it works. The mistaken belief that the EU is responsible for as much as 80% of all legislation in Europe… and a lack of understanding of the role of national governments, including Britain’s, in passing EU laws, have fostered the belief that an unaccountable and undemocratic machine in Brussels is somehow usurping the ancient role of Parliament. The media reinforce this belief, especially such Eurosceptic newspapers as the Sun and the Daily Mail (neither of which troubles to keep a staff correspondent in Brussels).

“Ignorance of how the EU works is, of course, to be found right across the continent. But it is deeper in Britain. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, notes that Britain is unusual in that “people can get to the top in the media, business and the City without knowing anything at all about the European Union.” Such knowledge can, he suggests, even be a career obstacle. The contrast between Westminster and Whitehall is telling. Parliament is full of people who are proud to have little or no understanding of the EU.”

On the Tories’ approach to the EU under David Cameron:

“The mistake over leaving the EPP was not that the Tories have had to switch their seating arrangements in the European Parliament (although the party has always underestimated the significance of that body in EU lawmaking). Nor was it that the Tories are now tarred by association with some apparent extremists, notably from Latvia.

“The real problem is that a majority of EU heads of government, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, belong to the EPP. This group now holds regular meetings ahead of all EU summits. When it came to choosing a new president of the European Council last November, it was the EPP that pushed Belgium’s unknown prime minister, Herman Van Rompuy. Because of his walk-out from the EPP (which infuriated Mrs Merkel, in particular), Mr Cameron as prime minister would be excluded from such discussions.

“His exclusion will also make it tougher for him to achieve his EU goals. Two things will make these especially tricky. One is that any general opt-outs from social policy or from the charter of fundamental rights would require treaty change. But after the long struggle to ratify Lisbon, most EU countries are allergic to any suggestion of a new treaty in the near future. The second is that the Tories have no obvious bargaining chips that they can play to sway their EU colleagues, who will be reluctant to concede any further opt-outs to a Britain that many consider to be already far too semi-detached from EU policies.”

Jon Stewart’s take on the European Parliament is, it must be said, pretty much spot on…

A European elections follow-up from me, over at the Guardian.

In terms of change in share of the vote (which dropped in turnout from 45% to 43%), taking the major parties:

Conservatives +1%
Labour -6.9%
UKIP +0.5%
Lib Dems -1.2%
Greens +2.4%
BNP +1.3%
SNP +0.7%
Plaid Cymru -0.1%
English Democrats +1.1%
Christian Party +1.6%

And in terms of absolute number of voters:

Conservatives -198,696
Labour -1,336,923
UKIP -152,542
Lib Dems -371,714
Green +190,210
BNP +135,398
SNP +89,509
Plaid Cymru -33,087
English Democrats +149,437
Christian Party +192,722

And so the big four (Conservatives, Labour, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats) between them lost 1,907,333 voters – 70% of which is accounted for by Labour’s huge plunge in popularity.

In terms of absolute voter numbers, therefore, the Tories lost 4.7%, Labour lost 36.2%, UKIP lost 5.8%, the Lib Dems lost 13.3%; meanwhile the Greens gained 18.3% and the BNP 16.7%.

Based on data from Wikipedia (2009 results, 2004 results)

To get an idea of the EU-wide picture, the best I’ve found so far is this interactive map from the Financial Times.

If so many people in Britain (80% was the usual figure quoted) wanted a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, how come only 43% bothered voting?

If the anti-EU cause is so overwhelmingly popular, how come only around half of those voted for an anti-EU party? (And that’s only if you include the Tories as anti-EU.)

Let’s number-crunch: 28.6% Tory, 17.4% UKIP, 6.5% BNP, Socialist Labour c.1%, English Democrats c.2%, Jury Team/No2EU/Libertas all <1% – so that’s c.55.5% of the vote for anti-Lisbon parties, and only around 27% of the vote for explicitly anti-EU parties (the Tories are more hard eurosceptics than overtly withdrawalist, after all).

I make that, with a 43% turnout, just 24% of the electorate supporting an anti-Lisbon party, and just 11.6% of the electorate supporting a party that advocates pulling out of the EU.

Update: Sorry – forgot that the Greens are anti-Lisbon. So that’s another 5.8%, so 61.3% total for anti-Lisbon parties, or 26.4% of the electorate. But still only 11.6% in favour of withdrawal.

I’m on Twitter at the moment, blathering away more or less incoherently with a bunch of other Eurobloggers (@JonWorth, @JulienFrisch, @kosmopolit, @citizeneurope, @EuropeanCitizen and a bunch of others) as the results and rumours come in.

Follow along via the hashtags #eu09 and #ep09 – your best bet is probably to use Twitterfall to follow the various tweets live. It’s fairly simple to use, it must be said – just add a bunch of searches into the “Custom” field in the left-hand column (I’m using #ep09, #eu09, EU, Europe and elections), and get real-time commentary from all over the shop. Some of it’s rubbish, naturally – this is the internet – but some is surprisingly good.

Current trend – at 8:45pm UK time, so 15 minutes from the results – seems to be a surge in support for the right (both centre right and far right), with mostly falling turnouts yet again, though ranging member state to member state from c.20% to c.80%. But with national issues likely to dominate everywhere, working out Europe-wide reasons for any apparent trends is something to be treated with great caution.

Below the fold – my Twitter contributions from the night (in chronological order, starting c.8:45pm UK time, ending c.2:30am UK time – and for Twitter newcomers, “RT” indicates where I’m quoting someone else):

Wow – passably interesting live coverage from EuroparlTV! (Well, interesting if you’re a bit of a geek…) http://tinyurl.com/quudxp

Anyone know of alternatives (FR/EN ideally) to the BBC’s fancy graphical EU elections thingie? http://tinyurl.com/o8x7lg #ep09 #eu09

Good news for lefties – in Greece, at any rate: http://tinyurl.com/qxtma5 The right doing well pretty much everywhere else #ep09 #eu09

RT @jonworth Swedish Pirates get 7.4% so 1 MEP at least. http://tr.im/nIDZ #eu09 #ep09 [I utterly insist they dress as pirates AT ALL TIMES]

RT @demsoc Early turnout figures for #ep09 – new low of 43% [Yay for democratic engagement! I hate people sometimes...] #eu09

#eu09 now seems t be trending in Twitterfall… #ep09

Declan Ganley trailing in 5th place, according to the BBC. So much for Libertas… #ep09 #eu09

RT @JulienFrisch #eu09 hashtag has made it on the global Twitter trends. [Hurrah! A few days too late, but still...] #ep09

Oh Christ – not Jeremy sodding Vine and his sodding patronising graphical bullshit… #eu09 #ep09

RT @ConnectIrmeli: #eu09 #ep09 Finland: Big winners are True Finns (rising EU critic) and Greens, all three big parties (Right, Centre, Left) losing votes

Christ – the Socialists have absolutely collapsed in France. Minus 18% share of vote, and minus 11 MEPs! Sarkozy’s lot up. #ep09 #eu09

Dear anti-BNP protest types in Manchester – don’t get aggressive at BNP twat Griffin – he’ll only use the footage for self-promotion

RT @dnotice Less likely BNP will win a NW seat, as in Burnley Lib Dems are looking as if they will come 1st http://is.gd/RYbE #ep09 #eu09

RT @dnotice RT @StopNickGriffin: Looks like BNP can’t win – LD & Green for final seat – v high Green in Manc & L’pool seems to have done it!

RT @jonnelledge SNP probably beat Labour in Scotland, even though SNP in power up there. Christ, they’re fucked, aren’t they? #eu09 #ep09

RT @RTE_Elections: Across Europe, no sign of Libertas candidates being elected yet in other member states, apart from France #ep09 #eu09

RT @siliconglen: #eu09 Labour in 6th place? wow. http://bit.ly/CMyCD

Hmmm… Greens, Liberals and Socialists all up (slightly) in Germany. That “right on the rise” trend seems less clear #ep09 #eu09

@JulienFrisch Ah – fair enough. My knowledge of German politics these days is next to non-existent…

William Hague: “All the main EP groups are too pro-EU.” What about the IND group, Bill? Tories would be an ideal fit with Farrage’s lot…

Anyone know why France and Germany, who voted today, already have full results out, but the UK has NOTHING, despite voting days ago? #eu09

RT @kosmopolit @Nosemonkey German TV had UK result (forecast?) 20 min ago: CON 26% UKIP 18 % LAB 16% GREENS 10% LIB 12% as far as I remember

RT @bloggers4ukip: Independence & Democracy group loses all 9 MEPs in Poland – Poland is now a eurofederalist country #eu09 [Ha ha ha!]

Labour still 1st in the North East? I wasn’t expecting that, even though it IS the North East… #eu09 #ep09

RT @JulienFrisch RT @Tayebot: First estimations of the new hemicycle online: http://bit.ly/11OdNi SOURCE: TNS #eu09 #ep09

RT @tim_woodall: The Apprentice more of a trending topic than the election! [And this is why democracy is screwed...] #ep09 #eu09

RT @tpcom provisional #eu09 results PES 155-167 EPP 263-273 Greens 52-56 ALDE 78-84 GUE 33-37 UEN 33-37 IND 1519 Others 83-89 http://is.gd/

RT @Eurocentrique Just got back from the European Parliament – walked into a press room at one stage and saw 30 screens all on twitter :)

IND Group’s loss of all nine MEPs in Poland now confirmed by the BBC. EPP up 30% – Cameron’s new Group looking even more silly #eu09 #ep09

“The Poles may be the biggest national bloc within the EPP” – BBC’s Alan Little. Nice move, Cameron! Could have been the Tories. #ep09 #eu09

RT @jonworth Eric Pickles is shockingly bad. “We won’t ally with anti-gay parties” – so what is PiS / Law & Justice in Poland, Eric? Idiot.

RT @ALDEgroup Libertas’ Declan Ganley 4th place after the 1st count “virtually no chance” of a seat in Ireland’s North West. #eu09 #ep09

RT @pickledpolitics Eric Pickles didn’t know what to say… as to why Tories didn’t gain from Labour in Eastern region. hilarious #ep09 #eu09

Christ – BNP ahead of the Tories in Barnsley? Right – new first strike coordinates for when I get the nuke codes… #eu09 #ep09

Yorkshire & the Humber – BNP get 120,139… Fuck you, Yorkshire. #ep09 #eu09

FUCK. British Nazi Party gets a seat. Fuck you thoroughly, Yorkshire and the Humber. #eu09 #ep09

RT @jonworth Britain’s best Labour MEP, Richard Corbett, loses his seat to Andrew Brons of BNP. Awful, awful. #eu09 #ep09 [I hadn't twigged]

RT @jamesgraham Polls seem to have consistently over represented the Greens. #ep09 #eu09 [in the UK, at any rate]

So, farewell then, Richard Corbett: The only non-mental MEP to ever get regular UK media coverage, and the first MEP to blog. #eu09 #ep09

Oh God, an articulate, middle-class racist MEP. Barking conspiracy-theorist racist loon, but a good speaker. This could be very bad. #eu09

RT @demsoc Newly elected BNP MEP claims Gordon Brown is going to rerun Euro election until he gets the right answer. He’s nuts, isn’t he? #eu09

BNP MEP former National Socialist Movement member, former National Front candidate. Hardcore fascist, in other words. Hurrah. #eu09

RT @demsoc Frankly, BNP MEP sounded just like a UKIP one to me.

RT @pickledpolitics It’s looking like [British Nazi Party leader] Nick Griffin may be elected MEP. Great. Just great. #ep09 #eu09

RT @jonnelledge Labour down 12% in Wales. Beaten by the Tories. In Wales. You know, the place with the unions and miners and stuff. Christ

RT @demsoc Polish far-right party, Samoobrona/Self-Defence, loses all 6 of its MEPs as vote collapses. [See - it's not all bad...] #eu09

I’m not a violent man, but I’d happily stomp Nick Griffin’s face into a bloody pulp.

RT @JamieSport If racism is vitriol directed at people who look like Griffin, then I’m a massive racist.

Christ. It’s starting to sink in. The last five years of Kilroy and UKIP stupidity was fun. But the BNP in the EP? It’s just not funny.

@dnotice The BNP won’t be in any group – the far-right Identity, Sovereignty, Tradition group collapsed thanks to them all hating foreigners.

RT @CaffeinatedDave: BNP gets it’s first seat, due to 2.5 million people doing nothing #yorkshireshame #eu09

I’ve decided to personally blame Hazel Blears for the BNP picking up a seat. Undermined Labour confidence at the last minute and gifted it.

RT @JamieSport Hey Yorkshire! Here’s your new Nazi arsonist swastika wearing MEP: http://bit.ly/TZluO

RT @jockso I don’t want to keep repeating myself but the BNP vote in Yorkshire fell. Not the rise of fascism, the rise of apathy. #eu09

South East region computer failure preventing the result. Bring on the National Identity Database and NHS IT system, eh? #eu09 #ep09

RT @deanlove: The EU election results are like a horrible mirror of the US elections earlier in the year. It’s all fear instead of hope.

RT @doctorvee PR *doesn’t* let fascist parties in. People voting for fascist parties does! #eu09 #ep09

RT @jonnelledge Nigel Farage says UKIP will put up 500 candidates for the next general election. If anything saves Labour, it’ll be that.

RT @keewa: funny how the BNP preach racial purity when they all look like piggly eyed, saggy jawed troglodytes isn’t it? #eu09

RT @monstris: Apprentice’s Yasmina, of Iranian extraction, [post-facto note: the winner of a reality TV show, announced the same night] is the sort of person the BNP wld expel. How’s that for a socipolitcal mashup?

BNP – 86,420 in London? Christ… *crosses fingers it’s not enough* #eu09 #ep09

190,000 for the Greens – I don’t like the Greens, but that should keep out the fascists. Yay! #ep09 #eu09

London: Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Green, UKIP, Labour, Tory, Tory – no seat for @jonathanfryer again. Damn – but UKIP pushed to 4th. Yay! #eu09

RT @johnhalton: The big plus for Gordon Brown: total lack of any real breakthrough for Tories so far (Wales notwithstanding). #eu09

RT @markclapham RT @jamesmoran: If you choose not to vote, then you’re just as bad as the BNP voters. But you don’t get to complain.

RT @MakeVotesCount Turnout in London is 33.3% – only 4% down since last time. Not bad considering no local elections in London on Thu.

East Midlands: Tory, Labour, UKIP, Tory, Lib Dem – UKIP lose a seat to the Lib Dems. Ha! Probably lack of Kilroy this time. Labour only -4%

RT @jonnelledge So far UKwide Tories +1%, Labour -7%, LibDems and UKIP -1% each. Not a big swing to the right, it’s just Labour imploding.

RT @doktorb: Reports from Manchester count – NW result imminent – BNP 1, UKIP 1, LD 1, Con 3, Lab 2 most likely #eu09

BNP’s rise not surprising (if worrying): Nationalism, racism and xenophobia always rise in recessions. Labour collapse amplifying the effect

UKIP support in Cornwall dropping. About time. Cornwall’s entire economy relies on EU funding… #eu09 #ep09

Hmmm… Socialists up in Czech Republic. Not much of a boost for the Tories’ potential Czech allies, from what I can tell. #eu09 #ep09

South West England: The Libertas FAIL continues apace. They’re not even beating individual independents… #eu09 #ep09

South West: Tory, UKIP, Lib Dem, Tory, UKIP, Tory – no Labour MEPs at all for the South West. #ep09 #eu09

Tory and UKIP vote share both -1% – Labour down 7%; Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Conservative Party, is it? #eu09 #ep09

Nice – South East BNP vote read out to shout of “Fascists! Fucking fascists!” Over 100,000 voted BNP, though hopefully not enough…

South East England: Tory, UKIP, Tory, Lib Dem, Green, Tory, UKIP, Tory, Labour, Lib Dem

Good result for the EU there – Marta Andreassen was No.2 on the UKP list: http://bit.ly/jTgvp #eu09 #ep09

RT @demsoc Labour frozen out in South West, in 5th place behind Greens. UKIP get 2 – lots of ungrateful farmers… #eu09 #ep09

Nigel Farrage still complaining about his supporters being too stupid to read a ballot paper… #eu09 #ep09

He he! RT @JamieSport RT @cathelliott I do not like green eggs and ham: I do not like that Hannan man #Icandodrseusstoo #eu09

I meant what I said and I said what I meant – BNP voters can go and get bent #Icandodrseusstoo

Nice – Dimbleby finally asks Tory arch anti-EU type Hannan the question I’ve been pondering for ages: “Why don’t you join UKIP?” #eu09

Ah – the BBC have finally remembered that they have a Europe Editor waiting around in the European Parliament giving continent-wide analysis

RT @pickledpolitics The tweedledum and tweedledee of Europe – Nigel Farage and Dan Hannan! hah! gotta love Dimbleby

RT @JamieSport Terribly friendly are Hannan and Farige; it can’t be that long til we hear of their marriage #icandodrseusstoo

West Midlands: BNP 121,967 – That’s now well over half a million BNP voters UK-wide. Still, 2.4m Muslims – who’d win in a fight? #eu09

West Midlands: Tory, UKIP, Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP – UKIP gain from Labour

North West England: BNP Leader Nick Griffin looks to be in with 132,094. Close, though…

Looks like about 200 more votes for UKIP would have been enough to keep the BNP out…

West Midlands: Tory, Labour, UKIP, Lib Dem, Tory, Labour, Tory, BNP

Make that 1,200 more votes for UKP to keep out the BNP, or 5,00 more for the Greens. But the BNP’s total votes actually went down. #eu09

I hope the 25,999 who voted Socialist Labour and the 23,580 who voted No2EU are pleased with themselves – they could have stopped Griffin.

Nick Griffin blaming Labour, “an out of touch political elite”, “unelected bureaucrats” and claiming electoral fraud. #eu09 #ep09

Griffin’s speech so far could have been delivered by someone from UKIP… #eu09 #ep09

Griffin: “We have no problem with people who are here legally and are contributing”? You could have fooled me… #ep09 #eu09

Wow… BBC News channel have one of their camp entertainment reporters fronting the rest of their elections coverage… #eu09 #ep09

With that, it’s probably time to go to bed. Proper analysis after some sleep before spouting off on BBC World News again in the evening.

RT @warrenellis The UK has elected in record low turnout a neofascist Shoah-denier & an actual no-hyperbole neo-Nazi to the Euro Parliament

The first thing to note is that European elections (in the UK at least – though the rest of this post will apply EU-wide) have a stupidly complicated voting system. This video should explain how it works. (Likewise, a lot of us are unclear on just how the EU works and what it is that the European Parliament does – this video should explain quickly and easily.)

To make matters more complicated, political parties also tend to work slightly differently when it comes to European issues – not least thanks to the political Groups in the European Parliament.

As such, it’s worth finding out how your own opinions tally with the party you’re thinking of voting for. I’d suggest checking out both VoteMatch.eu (alternatively VoteMatch.co.uk) and EUprofiler.eu – answer their short series of policy questions, and they should give you a good indication of where you stand in relation to the parties and political groups. (Assuming they’re working – both are coming under heavy traffic at the moment, and are going down a lot under the strain.) A discussion of the pros and cons of both sites by the Telegraph can be found here.

If you’re UK based and want to check out a party’s policies in more details, check out this handy list of links to the manifestos of ALL the UK parties standing. The BBC also has a handy overview of all the UK parties on offer.

However, don’t forget that all the UK political parties (bar the Conservatives and – if they get a seat – the BNP) will be part of a political Group in the European Parliament, and each of these Groups (effectively a coalition) will also have its own policy objectives. A handy roundup of the Group manifestos can be found at the handy EurActiv EU news and policy site.

To find out who your current MEPs are (multi-member constituencies, you see – you have more than one), and how they’ve performed in the job, try MiCandidate.eu or VoteWatch.eu – which has the added benefit of a ranking system, by which we can see how MEPs compare to each other based on attendance to votes, questions asked, speeches made, and so on. Both sites also – if you have a poke around – have some handy resources for checking out the policy platforms of the various political parties and groups EU-wide.

Finally, a passionate explanation of why your vote is important, and why you should care – no matter what your political opinions.

Buried away in the middle of an article about UKIP’s efforts to win over middle-England in today’s Sunday Telegraph:

Accusations of racism are nothing new for Ukip. Last November a pro-BNP group stormed into a meeting of the party’s national executive and offered an alliance in which the BNP would concentrate on the north of the country and Ukip the south.

Mr Farage told the delegation to leave but the impression persists that there is common ground between them.

Nothing new there, I know. But in the following paragraph comes a fascinating pair of statistics that I hadn’t seen before:

It may not be an official pact, but the BNP is free from a Ukip challenge in 80 per cent of the seats it is contesting, while Ukip has no BNP challenger in 85 per cent of the seats in which it is standing.

That’s a mighty odd coincidence, wouldn’t you say?

So, has UKIP teamed up with the fascists? They may not agree on economic policy, but they do both want out of the EU, and they’re both strongly anti-immigration. UKIP may not have an overtly racist constitution, but the two parties share two key policy aims, and know that they are both competing for much the same relatively small fringe of discontented anti-EU, anti-immigration voters.

It would make strong strategic sense for the two main anti-EU, anti-immigration parties not to split their already limited potential vote by avoiding competing directly against each other – but is this a formal agreement, something more back room, or have the two parties’ election strategists simply ended up coming to the same conclusions about which party has the best hope in 8 out of every 10 electoral contests, and entirely independently decided to target their resources elsewhere?

I’m not much of a one for conspiracy theories, but an 80% correlation seems a tad too much of a coincidence to merely be coincidence. Then again, I’m also no statistician, and haven’t seen the figures for myself – it is possible that there’s an entirely innocent explanation. But if UKIP want to maximise their votes, a secret team-up with the BNP would be a good way to go about it. As long as the team-up remained secret, of course…

Update: In the interest of fairness, see the comments below. Given the relatively small number of seats the two parties are standing in out of the total being contested, it rather looks like this isn’t statistically significant. Coincidence or conspiracy? Quite possibly neither.