The BNP are contesting c. 20 % of the total seats.
The UKIP are contesting c. 20 % of the total seats.

In 20 % of 20 % (i.e. 4 %) of districts, BOTH parties run .
In 16 % of districts, EITHER the BNP OR the UKIP run.
In 80 % of districts, neither runs.

Sixteen is 80 % of twenty. So if the UKIP and BNP dont contest each other in 80 % of the districts where they run, this is absolutely statistically correct – by random chance.

Given that the data were correct, the conspiracy theory is nullified.

They’re competing for the same votes.

It could be an alliance, sure. Don’t you think, though, that they both want to maximize their potential number of seats with a small target and a small budget.

@Nick: the point is precisely that you wouldn’t expect the candidates to be randomly distributed, so something that looks like a random distribution is (arguably) in itself suspicious.

You can’t ever say “all voters for party X do so for reason Y” but you can give a broad generalisation of a common motive.

Why do you think people vote for Labour and Conservatives ? Because they agree with all their policies, or a tribalism and to keep the other lot out ?

NM, neither are competing strongly in all wards, local elections are a hard fight for them (Lib Dems struggle to get enough candidates and they’ve significantly more members than the BNP for example).

As you know, I come from UKIP central, one of their MEPs used to be a friend of my parents when I was a kid (shared interest that they gave up when my sister was born). I now live in BNP central. Completely different voting demographic, UKIP are most likely to pick up seats in Tory held areas (and thus will do better once Cameron is in power), BNP fight hard in neglected traditional Labour areas.

Very little crossover—if they were competing in all wards then I’d suspect something, as it is, merely completely different targetting strategies.

Former Soviet Dissident Warns For EU Dictatorship
From the desk of Paul Belien on Mon, 2006-02-27 22:13
bukovsky-1.jpg

Bukovsky and Belien

Vladimir Bukovksy, the 63-year old former Soviet dissident, fears that the European Union is on its way to becoming another Soviet Union. In a speech he delivered in Brussels last week Mr Bukovsky called the EU a “monster” that must be destroyed, the sooner the better, before it develops into a fullfledged totalitarian state.

Mr Bukovsky paid a visit to the European Parliament on Thursday at the invitation of Fidesz, the Hungarian Civic Forum. Fidesz, a member of the European Christian Democrat group, had invited the former Soviet dissident over from England, where he lives, on the occasion of this year’s 50th anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Uprising. After his morning meeting with the Hungarians, Mr Bukovsky gave an afternoon speech in a Polish restaurant in the Trier straat, opposite the European Parliament, where he spoke at the invitation of the United Kingdom Independence Party, of which he is a patron.
An interview with Vladimir Bukovsky about the impending EUSSR
In his speech Mr Bukovsky referred to confidential documents from secret Soviet files which he was allowed to read in 1992. These documents confirm the existence of a “conspiracy” to turn the European Union into a socialist organization. I attended the meeting and taped the speech. A transcript, as well as the audio fragment (approx. 15 minutes) can be found below. I also had a brief interview with Mr Bukovsky (4 minutes), a transcript and audio fragment of which can also be found below. The interview about the European Union had to be cut short because Mr Bukovsky had other engagements, but it brought back some memories to me, as I had interviewed Vladimir Bukovsky twenty years ago, in 1986, when the Soviet Union, the first monster that he so valiantly fought, was still alive and thriving.

Mr Bukovsky was one of the heroes of the 20th century. As a young man he exposed the use of psychiatric imprisonment against political prisoners in the former USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, 1917-1991) and spent a total of twelve years (1964-1976), from his 22nd to his 34th year, in Soviet jails, labour camps and psychiatric institutions. In 1976 the Soviets expelled him to the West. In 1992 he was invited by the Russian government to serve as an expert testifying at the trial conducted to determine whether the Soviet Communist Party had been a criminal institution. To prepare for his testimony Mr Bukovsky was granted access to a large number of documents from Soviet secret archives. He is one of the few people ever to have seen these documents because they are still classified. Using a small handheld scanner and a laptop computer, however, he managed to copy many documents (some with high security clearance), including KGB reports to the Soviet government.

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